Spectacolul ideilor pe hartă

03/mai/2010 Preşedintele R. Moldova merge la Moscova, dar nu va asista la parada de 9 mai

Mihai Ghimpu va pleca, totuşi, la Moscova

Preşedintele interimar, Mihai Ghimpu, a anunţat că va pleca la Moscova pentru a participa la summit-ul CSI care va avea loc pe 8 mai, însă nu va participa la parada consacrată celor 65 de ani de la Victoria asupra fascismului.

[[[     G E O P O L I T I K O N  a mai publicat: Este bine sau nu ca Republica Moldova să participe cu soldaţi la parada de 9 mai de la Moscova?     ]]]

Potrivit lui Ghimpu, el va participa la 8 mai la summit-ul CSI, însă nu va asista Citește în continuare

3 mai 2010 Posted by | Geopolitica | , , , | Un comentariu

11/dec/2009 Invitatul din weekend – Vl. Socor: R. Moldova pe pilot automat după eşecul numirii unui preşedinte

December 8, 2009 — Jamestown Foundation


by Vladimir Socor

On December 7 Moldova failed in its fifth attempt this year to elect a head of state in parliament. The Communist Party, which governed from 2001 to September 2009 and retains 48 seats in this parliament, blocked the election of Marian Lupu, presidential candidate of the now-governing Alliance for European Integration (AEI) of four parties. Lupu, who leads the Democratic Party within the AEI, received all of the AEI’s 53 votes. Under Moldova’s constitution, however, the president is elected with at least 61 votes in favor in the 101-seat parliament (Moldpres, December 7).

With this failure the parliament also lost its final chance to preserve its full constitutional legitimacy. This parliament itself is the product of repeat elections, which were held on July 29, after the parliament that had been elected on April 5 failed to elect a head of state and was consequently dissolved.

text integral, format word doc.Socor – R. Moldova – 08 dec 09

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by Ed Allison 02 dec 09

11 decembrie 2009 Posted by | Geopolitica, Intelo, Istorie | , , , , , | Lasă un comentariu

07/dec/2009 România – cu doi preşedinţi, Republica Moldova – cu niciunul

Impas la Chişinău

– la orizont, alegeri anticipate –

EURAST – Adrian Cioroianu

Ultima oră: parlamentarii de la Chişinău nu au reuşit numirea unui preşedinte al Republicii Moldova, în persoana lui Marian Lupu. În aceste condiţii, drumul spre alegeri anticipate este deschis – cel mai probabil, ele vor fi programate la mijlocul anului viitor (luna iunie 2010).

Consecinţele acestui impas sînt neliniştitoare: i) impasul politic nu va putea aduce nimic bun pentru criza economică şi socială din R. Moldova; ii) locul şi rolul R. Moldova în Parteneriatul Estic al Uniunii Europene urmează, pe mai departe, a fi definite; deocamdată nu sînt; iii) cresc şansele ca rezultatul viitoarelor alegeri din Ucraina să influenţeze mai mult decît pînă acum evoluţiile politice de la Chişinău; şi iv) Rusia, care aparent semnalase susţinere pentru un eventual M. Lupu preşedinte, cîştigă un răstimp preţios pentru a se poziţiona şi mai mult ca un power broker în Republica Moldova.

Chiar dacă sondajul GEOPOLITIKON nu are valoare sociologică, este de semnalat că cititorii noştri au intuit (corect, din păcate) acest impas: pînă aseară, 68% dintre repondenţii chestionarului nostru au mizat pe faptul că noul preşedinte nu va fi numit de parlament.

Dintre ultimele analize publicate de GEOPOLITIKON:

Adam Michnik despre politica Rusiei faţă de R. Moldova: https://geopolitikon.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/05dec2009-eurast-recomanda-dupa-20-de-ani-interviu-cu-adam-michnik/

Dan Dungaciu despre un bizar incident între R. Moldova şi Ucraina: https://geopolitikon.wordpress.com/2009/12/05/05dec2009-invitatul-din-week-end-dan-dungaciu-despre-un-bizar-incident-intre-ucraina-si-r-moldova/

Republica Moldova, printre cele mai corupte ţări din Europa: https://geopolitikon.wordpress.com/2009/12/04/04dec2009-imaginea-reala-a-romaniei-in-lume-ii-indexul-transparency-international-privind-coruptia/

Vladimir Socor despre implicarea Rusiei în viaţa politică a R. Moldova: https://geopolitikon.wordpress.com/2009/12/02/02dec2009-eurast-recomanda-o-excelenta-analiza-vl-socor-cum-pescuieste-rusia-in-apele-politicii-de-la-chisinau/


by Bill Schorr 12 nov 09

7 decembrie 2009 Posted by | caricaturi / comics, Geopolitica, Intelo | , , , , , | Lasă un comentariu

02/dec/2009 EURAST recomandă o excelentă analiză: Vl. Socor – Cum „pescuieşte” Rusia în apele politicii de la Chişinău


by Vladimir Socor  

(The Jamestown Foudation, December 1th, 2009)

Moldova’s parliament, a product of the repeat elections in July and deadlocked since then, has scheduled its fourth official attempt this year (technically the fifth attempt) to elect a head of state for December 7.

The governing Alliance for European Integration (AEI) officially supports Marian Lupu, leader of the Democratic Party (third-largest in the four-party Alliance) as its collective candidate for head of state. However, Lupu has gone far in courting Russian support and risks being abandoned by the AEI. Unofficially, some AEI factions are considering ways to scuttle Lupu’s candidacy. The nominally Communist opposition has refused to designate a candidate thus far. The Communists, in power from 2001 to 2009, hold more than enough seats to block the election of the head of state in parliament and force new parliamentary elections.

While the tug-of-war between the Communists and the AEI captures public attention, a parallel contest is ongoing within the AEI itself. Behind the Alliance’s façade of unity, certain leaders have not conclusively given up their own presidential ambitions, which they had seemed to renounce when nominating Lupu as joint candidate. With the presidential election turning into a long-drawn-out process, and Lupu’s chances consequently looking more uncertain, internal rivalries are recrudescing in the AEI.

The incumbent prime minister, Vlad Filat (Liberal-Democrat Party leader), and the leader of Moldova Noastra (AEI’s smallest party) Serafim Urecheanu, had announced their presidential ambitions prior to AEI’s nomination of Lupu. The parliament’s incumbent chairman and acting head of state, Mihai Ghimpu, has repeatedly announced his readiness to continue as acting head of state for as long as necessary to change the constitution.

The gathering threats to Lupu’s candidacy have forced him to seek Russian and local Communist support (see EDM, November 4, 30). Lupu unveiled his predicament publicly for the first time in his November 24 news conference. Alluding to „differing positions and voices [within the AEI] regarding the presidential election”, he could not predict „whether these would unify or would divide even further.” Lupu warned against the intractable situation that would result „if the principles, adopted at the Alliance’s foundation [i.e, the presidential nomination], are not respected.” If the presidential election fails again and new parliamentary elections are held, Lupu said, the Democratic Party might run separately from the other AEI parties, seeking „ideologically compatible” allies in and out of parliament (Moldpres, November 24). He went on to characterize Moldova’s nominal Communist Party as largely compatible (Timpul, November 30, citing Pro-TV, November 27).

Concurrently, Lupu has proposed a 12-point platform for cooperation with the opposition Communist Party. Initiated by him and said by him to carry AEI’s endorsment, the platform is subject to further negotiation with the Communist Party, as a possible basis for Lupu’s election as president with that party’s support (Basapress, NewsIn, November 25).

Lupu’s AEI rivals have seized this opportunity to threaten his candidacy openly. On November 30 the Chisinau newspaper „Timpul,” closely linked with Filat’s Liberal-Democrat Party, vehemently attacked Lupu’s platform and sharply questioned whether it carried the AEI’s endorsment. The attack focuses on perennial, emotional issues of national identity. It rejects the Lupu platform’s planks about „creating conditions for ethnic groups’ active participation in political life,” „a balanced approach to the teaching of history,” and „combating irredentism.” It interprets these three, semi-coded planks as implying a privileged treatment to „Russian-speaking” ethnic groups, renouncing the teaching of Romanian history, and resisting Romanian influence („irredentism”). And it takes equally vehement issue with Lupu’s recent statement (Pro-TV, November 27) about strict observance of Moldova’s permanent status of neutrality and Moldova being a „multiethnic and multicultural country.”

Those parts of Lupu’s platforms read like a desperate attempt to secure Russia’s and the local Communist Party’s support. „Timpul” is almost certainly accurate in its interpretation of Lupu’s planks. This influential newspaper speaks for Romanian-minded Chisinau circles across party lines, including Filat’s latent rival, the Liberal Party of parliament chairman and acting head of state Mihai Ghimpu. With six days to go until the presidential election, „Timpul”‘s assault on Lupu indicates that AEI leaders are seriously considering abandoning Lupu’s presidential candidacy and prolonging Ghimpu’s acting presidency for an undefined period of time, in breach of the admittedly flawed constitution, and pending changes to that document by referemdum.

Thus, Lupu’s tactical rapprochement with Russia is playing into the hands of his rivals within the AEI. His tactics risk squandering his reputation as a Western-oriented politician, favorably regarded in Brussels and other European capitals, and with no personal links to Russia thus far. Unlike the other AEI leaders, Lupu has no personal links to Romania either. He and a few other AEI politicians of Lupu’s generation (now in their early 40s) represent a cultural leap from the post-Soviet era into the European integration era for Moldova. Nevertheless, feeling cornered inside the AEI, Lupu has reached out recklessly close to Russia and the Communists.

Russia would prefer a Moldovan leadership that modifies the existing, unambiguous European orientation by introducing a two-vector policy between Europe and Russia. By the same token, Russia would welcome a Moldovan leadership that sets limits to Romanian influence in Moldova.

Moscow’s optimal solution would be to support a respected Moldovan politician with a European face, who would preside over a two-vector policy. Furthermore, such a Moldovan president would have to operate in alliance with one or several political groups amenable to Russian influence. Moscow apparently hopes that it could embed Lupu into such an arrangement. However, the Kremlin’s attempts to persuade the Moldovan Communist Party or at least a part of it to break the deadlock and support Lupu’s election as president (see EDM, November) have not borne fruit thus far.

There are no pro-Russia elements in the AEI; and few such in the opposition Communist Party’s leadership (which had distanced itself dramatically from Moscow in recent years). All Moldovan political leaders including Communists subscribe to the goal of European integration (despite differences of degree in their understanding of that goal). The Communist Party, however, has switched from a pro-Europe stance to an equidistant stance between Europe and Russia in its electoral rhetoric this year.

While some AEI politicians feel close to Romania, and some are prone to Romanian national irredentism, no significant Moldovan politician is oriented toward Russia. Even among Communist parliamentarians, political Russophiles (as distinct from cultural ones) are a few passive backbenchers. Russian direct political influence in Chisinau had been nil during the nominally Communist Vladimir Voronin’s presidency (2001-2009). Pro-Moscow groups operate outside the Communist Party, on the left fringe of „Russian-speaking” ethnic groups.

However, Chisinau’s intense partisan, factional, and personal rivalries–coupled with the urgency of external economic support to the new government–impel some leaders and groups to reach out not only to the European Union or Romania, but also to Russia. In this situation, presidential aspirants and government leaders responsible for the economy are engaging in tactical fence-mending with Moscow.

Consequently, Moscow sees an opportunity to build political influence in Chisinau for the first time after 1991. It has started this effort almost from scratch in recent months. The Kremlin and the Russian government are approaching Moldovan political groups and key contestants for power, seeking to shape the outcome and create a basis for working with a post-crisis government. However, the Communists are not readily amenable, and Lupu is overplaying his tactical hand.


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 by Bill Schorr, 05 nov 09

2 decembrie 2009 Posted by | caricaturi / comics, Geopolitica, Intelo | , , , , , , , , | Lasă un comentariu

14/nov/2009 EURAST recomandă: interviu „Radio Europa liberă” cu M. Lupu – situaţia din R. Moldova

Interview: Moldovan Presidential Hopeful Says ‘There Is Still Time’

November 12, 2009
Moldovan lawmakers this week tried and failed to elect a new president. The Communist opposition boycotted a vote after the ruling Alliance for European Integration nominated Democratic Party leader and former Communist parliament speaker Marian Lupu. 
Now legislators must make one more attempt to elect a head of state in the next month, and a failure to choose a president would automatically trigger another round of national legislative elections next year – in the wake of two inconclusive elections this year. In the meantime, the political stalemate is threatening to sink the country’s battered economy.

RFE/RL Russian Service contributor Irina Severin spoke with Lupu about the prospects for finding a way out of the crisis.

RFE/RL: How do things stand now with the presidential election?

Marian Lupu: The situation is not simple, and the crisis is continuing. We will see how the second round of the presidential election – which must be held before December 10 – will go. There is still time. There is still a chance to continue a dialogue among all the parliamentary forces – so that in the future we can try to find a political consensus, a compromise that must, in my opinion, be based on some balance of the rights and responsibilities of the authorities, of the ruling structures, on the one hand, and those of the parliamentary opposition on the other.

This is the framework within which this dialogue must be conducted. And it will definitely be undertaken – the stakes are very high for the government. If parliament cannot elect a head of state before December 10, then there will be repeat parliamentary elections, which most likely will be held before the end of 2010.

The consequences of such a situation would be rather alarming, in my opinion. Alarming on the sociopolitical level, because there remains some uncertainty, some sense that the mission of the political class isn’t completed, that the expectations of society have not been fulfilled. There is a mood that, in my opinion, could lead to a loss of public confidence, a loss of the electorate’s faith in the political class as a whole, in the functioning of democratic institutions, the institutions of power. (text integral)

14 noiembrie 2009 Posted by | Geopolitica | , , , | Un comentariu